V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.36%
increased by 0.79%
1 Week
31.43%
increased by 0.86%
1 Month
31.64%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1014 | 13.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 42.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8167 | 176.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0513 | -4.67*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6991 | 11.76*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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