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V-Lab

Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

30.79%

increased by 1.00%

1 Week

32.34%

increased by 2.55%

1 Month

36.88%

increased by 7.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3211
22.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0920
31.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
241.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1872
-2.66***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days