V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.79%
increased by 1.00%
1 Week
32.34%
increased by 2.55%
1 Month
36.88%
increased by 7.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3211 | 22.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 31.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8748 | 241.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1872 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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