V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.76%
increased by 3.76%
1 Week
36.05%
increased by 5.05%
1 Month
39.17%
increased by 8.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8226 | 7.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0959 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8342 | 32.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0083 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | 0.0077 | 0.25 |
| γ3 | -0.0502 | -2.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.0495 | 3.81*** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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