V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.02%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
32.98%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
37.58%
increased by 6.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8210 | 7.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0963 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8335 | 32.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0079 | 0.38 |
| γ2 | 0.0084 | 0.27 |
| γ3 | -0.0506 | -2.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.0496 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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