V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.79%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
34.34%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
38.08%
increased by 4.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8237 | 7.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0956 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8349 | 32.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0085 | 0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0074 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -0.0502 | -2.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.0498 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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