V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
26.36%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
27.75%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
31.05%
increased by 4.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8092 | 9.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8331 | 32.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 2.74*** |
| γ2 | -0.0292 | -4.08*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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