Grupo Carso Sab De Cv APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.02%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
38.75%
increased by 1.31%
1 Month
40.63%
increased by 3.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 100% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.28 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6349 | 7.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 17.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 138.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1510 | 7.87*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2771 | 26.13*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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