V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
49.75%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
49.90%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
50.42%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.0219 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0126 | 0.94 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 9.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3402 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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