V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.16%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
51.23%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
51.45%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.9140 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0083 | 0.28 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9736 | 4.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4256 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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