V-Lab
SRT Marine Systems PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
48.14%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
51.25%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
55.18%
increased by 6.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6476 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6932 | 8.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.3075 | -2.03** |
| γ2 | 0.3674 | 1.64 |
| γ3 | -0.0227 | -0.19 |
| γ4 | -0.0868 | -0.86 |
| γ5 | 0.0888 | 0.84 |
| γ6 | -0.0390 | -0.44 |
| γ7 | -0.0127 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
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