V-Lab
SRT Marine Systems PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
44.78%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
47.86%
increased by 2.45%
1 Month
51.69%
increased by 6.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5733 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6888 | 8.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.6030 | -2.38** |
| γ2 | 0.7655 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.2479 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.2199 | 1.08 |
| γ5 | -0.2553 | -1.44 |
| γ6 | 0.1605 | 1.04 |
| γ7 | 0.0260 | 0.17 |
| γ8 | -0.1482 | -0.89 |
| γ9 | 0.1085 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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