V-Lab
SRT Marine Systems PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.59%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
43.94%
increased by 3.34%
1 Month
48.09%
increased by 7.49%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5762 | 3.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1120 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6901 | 8.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5970 | -2.38** |
| γ2 | 0.7583 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.2455 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.2157 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.2480 | -1.40 |
| γ6 | 0.1499 | 0.97 |
| γ7 | 0.0457 | 0.31 |
| γ8 | -0.1861 | -1.15 |
| γ9 | 0.1480 | 1.32 |
0.802
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5762 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6901 | 8.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5970 | -2.38** |
| γ2 | 0.7583 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.2455 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.2157 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.2480 | -1.40 |
| γ6 | 0.1499 | 0.97 |
| γ7 | 0.0457 | 0.31 |
| γ8 | -0.1861 | -1.15 |
| γ9 | 0.1480 | 1.32 |
Persistence:
0.802
Half-life:
3 days
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