Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ardagh Metal Packaging S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

52.63%

decreased by 4.96%

1 Week

54.73%

decreased by 2.86%

1 Month

56.85%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Ardagh Metal Packaging S A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1433
8.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1784
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5641
6.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0122
1.29

Persistence:

0.742

Half-life:

2 days