V-Lab
Ardagh Metal Packaging S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.63%
decreased by 4.96%
1 Week
54.73%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Month
56.85%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1433 | 8.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1784 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5641 | 6.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0122 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.742
Half-life:
2 days
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