V-Lab
Ardagh Metal Packaging S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
56.42%
decreased by 5.18%
1 Week
58.40%
decreased by 3.20%
1 Month
60.86%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 146% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1703 | 15.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2422 | 11.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6226 | 35.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1438 | -4.51*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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