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V-Lab

Ardagh Metal Packaging S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

56.42%

decreased by 5.18%

1 Week

58.40%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Month

60.86%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Ardagh Metal Packaging S A GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 146% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1703
15.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2422
11.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6226
35.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1438
-4.51***

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days