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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	2.9827	3.82***
αARCH	0.2419	2.87***
βGARCH	0.6317	9.50***
γleverage	-0.1413	-1.13

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	2.9827	3.82***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2419	2.87***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6317	9.50***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1413	-1.13

V-Lab

Ardagh Metal Packaging S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Ardagh Metal Packaging S A Analyses