Finnair OYJ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.08%
decreased by 2.13%
1 Week
46.85%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
50.58%
increased by 4.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5311 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1631 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6546 | 15.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1659 | -3.74*** |
| γ2 | 0.3100 | 4.75*** |
| γ3 | -0.2100 | -5.30*** |
| γ4 | 0.1064 | 2.97*** |
| γ5 | -0.0501 | -1.44 |
| γ6 | -0.0187 | -0.53 |
| γ7 | 0.0900 | 2.29** |
| γ8 | -0.0969 | -2.10** |
| γ9 | 0.0329 | 0.69 |
| γ10 | 0.0007 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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