Finnair OYJ MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.40%
1 Week
48.92%
1 Month
51.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 22% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2142 | 24.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4878 | 24.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0392 | -3.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0286 | 1.85* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0216 | 2.81*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9741 | 101.45*** |
Persistence:
0.682
Half-life:
2 days
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