V-Lab
Marketingforce Management GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
116.88%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
115.64%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Month
111.51%
decreased by 6.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 35.8907 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 10.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9677 | 77.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8371 | 7.90*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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