Ubiquoss Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
85.46%
increased by 3.80%
1 Week
84.97%
increased by 3.31%
1 Month
83.11%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2017 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.3035 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0807 | 62.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 748.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9738 | 58.85*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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