XXF Group Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
97.70%
increased by 19.22%
1 Week
98.65%
increased by 20.17%
1 Month
101.24%
increased by 22.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 44.6573 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1366 | 11.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9422 | 46.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9851 | 8.65*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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