V-Lab
XXF Group Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
89.43%
increased by 3.75%
1 Week
90.88%
increased by 5.20%
1 Month
95.43%
increased by 9.75%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9934 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1481 | 3.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8197 | 16.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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