Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.20%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
31.16%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
31.59%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2016 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9954 | 14.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1041 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4892 | 20.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8165 | 2.03** |
Persistence:
0.489
Half-life:
1 days
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