V-Lab
Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.76%
decreased by 5.29%
1 Week
39.56%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Month
40.23%
decreased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2621 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1782 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0103 | 0.13 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.2226 | 3.09*** |
| γ2 | -3.4826 | -3.15*** |
| γ3 | 2.1533 | 2.74*** |
| γ4 | -1.8707 | -2.22** |
| γ5 | 1.8087 | 2.05** |
| γ6 | -1.3114 | -1.84* |
| γ7 | 0.7224 | 1.02 |
| γ8 | -0.5225 | -0.71 |
| γ9 | 0.9166 | 1.37 |
| γ10 | -1.0507 | -1.90* |
Persistence:
0.188
Half-life:
0 days
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