V-Lab
Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
37.59%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
40.42%
increased by 1.49%
1 Month
41.10%
increased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2016 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2457 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1781 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0183 | 0.22 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.1730 | 3.04*** |
| γ2 | -3.4171 | -3.11*** |
| γ3 | 2.1300 | 2.74*** |
| γ4 | -1.8642 | -2.25** |
| γ5 | 1.8224 | 2.09** |
| γ6 | -1.3412 | -1.89* |
| γ7 | 0.7503 | 1.08 |
| γ8 | -0.5361 | -0.74 |
| γ9 | 0.9329 | 1.43 |
| γ10 | -1.0786 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.196
Half-life:
0 days
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