V-Lab
Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.87%
decreased by 2.61%
1 Week
39.74%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
40.43%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2309 | 6.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1759 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0208 | 0.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.1241 | 2.99*** |
| γ2 | -3.3549 | -3.07*** |
| γ3 | 2.1099 | 2.75*** |
| γ4 | -1.8522 | -2.29** |
| γ5 | 1.8217 | 2.12** |
| γ6 | -1.3550 | -1.92* |
| γ7 | 0.7543 | 1.10 |
| γ8 | -0.4959 | -0.69 |
| γ9 | 0.8426 | 1.32 |
| γ10 | -0.9953 | -1.98** |
Persistence:
0.197
Half-life:
0 days
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