V-Lab
Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
28.89%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
31.52%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
32.64%
increased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2016 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 266% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0761 | 7.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2960 | 6.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2027 | 9.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.0703 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0513 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.474
Half-life:
1 days
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