V-Lab
Diginex Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, April 29th, 2026
1 Day
162.81%
increased by 28.68%
1 Week
165.10%
increased by 30.97%
1 Month
173.55%
increased by 39.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2025 to Apr 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 310.8550 | 4.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1023 | 12.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 564.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1681 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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