V-Lab
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
265.54%
increased by 61.45%
1 Week
275.07%
increased by 70.98%
1 Month
309.51%
increased by 105.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3,220.3020 | 7.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1326 | 204.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 2,063.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0057 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
198 days
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