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V-Lab

Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

36.03%

increased by 18.02%

1 Week

34.66%

increased by 16.65%

1 Month

31.10%

increased by 13.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5626
7.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1544
9.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7629
33.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1359
3.03***
γ2-0.2719
-3.71***
γ30.2486
5.01***
γ4-0.1969
-5.12***
γ50.1048
2.36**
γ60.0210
0.44
γ7-0.0654
-1.61
γ80.0292
0.98

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days