V-Lab
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.03%
increased by 12.80%
1 Week
31.49%
increased by 13.26%
1 Month
33.24%
increased by 15.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 285 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0664 | 16.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 18.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9029 | 336.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0108 | 1.43 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
285 days
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