Skip to main content
V-Lab

Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

30.73%

increased by 12.53%

1 Week

31.16%

increased by 12.96%

1 Month

32.79%

increased by 14.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 241 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 14% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
22.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9056
300.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0116
2.23**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.4875
1.05
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7076
2.24**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

241 days