V-Lab
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.73%
1 Week
31.16%
1 Month
32.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 241 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 14% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 22.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 300.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 2.23** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.4875 | 1.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7076 | 2.24** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
241 days
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