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Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

29.04%

increased by 4.79%

1 Week

30.16%

increased by 5.91%

1 Month

32.93%

increased by 8.68%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4533
6.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1484
25.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9333
97.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0445
21.18***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days