V-Lab
Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.46%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
20.10%
increased by 3.24%
1 Month
27.57%
increased by 10.71%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4881 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1476 | 25.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9363 | 99.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0408 | 21.59*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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