Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.24%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
25.39%
increased by 1.43%
1 Month
30.33%
increased by 6.37%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4643 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1484 | 25.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 96.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0400 | 21.22*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities