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V-Lab

Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.46%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

20.10%

increased by 3.24%

1 Month

27.57%

increased by 10.71%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4881
6.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1476
25.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9363
99.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0408
21.59***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

11 days