V-Lab
Wawel Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
29.04%
increased by 4.79%
1 Week
30.16%
increased by 5.91%
1 Month
32.93%
increased by 8.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4533 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1484 | 25.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 97.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0445 | 21.18*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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