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V-Lab

Wawel Sa APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.06%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

22.73%

increased by 3.59%

1 Month

28.84%

increased by 9.70%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wawel Sa APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2524
17.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2088
38.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7446
96.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0160
1.06
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4019
29.11***

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days