V-Lab
Wawel Sa APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.06%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
22.73%
increased by 3.59%
1 Month
28.84%
increased by 9.70%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2524 | 17.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2088 | 38.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7446 | 96.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0160 | 1.06 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4019 | 29.11*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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