V-Lab
Wawel Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.51%
increased by 2.55%
1 Week
25.56%
increased by 4.60%
1 Month
29.97%
increased by 9.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3909 | 25.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2048 | 22.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7021 | 97.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0265 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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