V-Lab
Wawel Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.51%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
22.48%
increased by 2.42%
1 Month
28.48%
increased by 8.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3865 | 25.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2046 | 22.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7034 | 97.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0265 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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