V-Lab
Wawel Sa Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.10%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
22.62%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
25.86%
increased by 3.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 2, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 16% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2924 | 25.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1819 | 26.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7457 | 120.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0245 | -2.09** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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