V-Lab
Wawel Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
increased by 2.98%
1 Week
24.02%
increased by 3.88%
1 Month
24.72%
increased by 4.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 12% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2308 | 25.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4813 | 36.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0287 | 2.30** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0150 | 2.83*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0209 | 4.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9752 | 182.90*** |
Persistence:
0.726
Half-life:
2 days
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