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V-Lab

Wawel Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.12%

increased by 2.98%

1 Week

24.02%

increased by 3.88%

1 Month

24.72%

increased by 4.58%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wawel Sa MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 12% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2308
25.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4813
36.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0287
2.30**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0150
2.83***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0209
4.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9752
182.90***

Persistence:

0.726

Half-life:

2 days