V-Lab
Wawel Sa Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.16%
increased by 1.12%
1 Week
16.57%
increased by 2.53%
1 Month
17.96%
increased by 3.92%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2239 | 6.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2403 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5083 | 10.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0589 | 0.79 |
| γ2 | -0.0530 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 0.0996 | 1.31 |
| γ4 | -0.2990 | -4.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.3760 | 5.29*** |
| γ6 | -0.2890 | -4.04*** |
| γ7 | 0.1502 | 1.92* |
| γ8 | -0.0977 | -1.06 |
| γ9 | 0.1788 | 1.80* |
| γ10 | -0.3374 | -2.33** |
Persistence:
0.749
Half-life:
2 days
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