V-Lab
Wawel Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
22.45%
increased by 3.25%
1 Month
25.49%
increased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1103 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2432 | 9.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5027 | 10.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0265 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -0.0014 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.0632 | 0.84 |
| γ4 | -0.2661 | -3.68*** |
| γ5 | 0.3464 | 4.91*** |
| γ6 | -0.2620 | -3.72*** |
| γ7 | 0.1205 | 1.58 |
| γ8 | -0.0493 | -0.57 |
| γ9 | 0.0770 | 0.98 |
| γ10 | -0.0830 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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