V-Lab
Albert David Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
45.19%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
45.18%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
45.14%
decreased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2826 | 22.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1443 | 24.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8299 | 192.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0187 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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