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Albert David GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

48.53%

decreased by 4.98%

1 Week

48.78%

decreased by 4.73%

1 Month

49.58%

decreased by 3.93%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Albert David GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.8963
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0836
19.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9679
82.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6807
16.76***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days