V-Lab
Albert David GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
48.53%
decreased by 4.98%
1 Week
48.78%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Month
49.58%
decreased by 3.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.8963 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 19.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9679 | 82.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6807 | 16.76*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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