V-Lab
Albert David Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.86%
decreased by 3.25%
1 Week
32.43%
decreased by 2.68%
1 Month
32.97%
decreased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0480 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1473 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5738 | 7.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0076 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.1830 | 0.38 |
| γ3 | -0.3079 | -0.94 |
| γ4 | -0.0903 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 0.4869 | 1.69* |
| γ6 | -0.3113 | -1.18 |
| γ7 | -0.3014 | -1.14 |
| γ8 | 0.8309 | 3.08*** |
| γ9 | -0.8513 | -3.32*** |
| γ10 | 0.4773 | 2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.721
Half-life:
2 days
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