V-Lab
Albert David GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
46.15%
decreased by 3.16%
1 Week
46.20%
decreased by 3.11%
1 Month
46.32%
decreased by 2.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 41% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6265 | 16.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1363 | 13.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8107 | 88.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0399 | -2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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