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V-Lab

Albert David MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

38.96%

decreased by 3.64%

1 Week

41.38%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Month

44.37%

increased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Albert David MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 80% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2123
15.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5150
15.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0947
-5.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5746
0.90
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0747
0.88
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8537
5.59***

Persistence:

0.680

Half-life:

2 days