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V-Lab

Coil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.75%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

29.89%

increased by 4.11%

1 Month

35.92%

increased by 10.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Coil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1988
21.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6368
59.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0094
0.68
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2470
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0196
2.00**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9565
41.83***

Persistence:

0.840

Half-life:

4 days