V-Lab
Coil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.75%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
29.89%
increased by 4.11%
1 Month
35.92%
increased by 10.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1988 | 21.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6368 | 59.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0094 | 0.68 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2470 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0196 | 2.00** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9565 | 41.83*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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