V-Lab
Coil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
19.93%
increased by 2.93%
1 Month
24.55%
increased by 7.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1317 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2124 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6616 | 16.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0129 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | -0.0178 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | 0.0074 | 0.05 |
| γ5 | 0.0237 | 0.18 |
| γ6 | 0.0089 | 0.07 |
| γ7 | -0.2400 | -2.02** |
| γ8 | 0.5035 | 3.76*** |
| γ9 | -0.5494 | -3.64*** |
| γ10 | 0.3686 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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