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V-Lab

Coil Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

9.09%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

10.56%

increased by 1.47%

1 Month

12.73%

increased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Coil SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0452
5.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2023
6.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6545
14.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0393
-0.46
γ20.0670
0.45
γ3-0.0435
-0.29
γ40.0157
0.11
γ50.0256
0.20
γ60.0005
0.00
γ7-0.2151
-1.80*
γ80.4359
3.02***
γ9-0.3781
-1.98**
γ10-0.1071
-0.43

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days