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V-Lab

Coil APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

25.85%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

32.75%

increased by 6.90%

1 Month

48.08%

increased by 22.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Coil APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4430
16.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2034
27.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7473
82.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0237
1.01
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1512
24.36***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days