Coil APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
25.85%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
32.75%
increased by 6.90%
1 Month
48.08%
increased by 22.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4430 | 16.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2034 | 27.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7473 | 82.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0237 | 1.01 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1512 | 24.36*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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