Coil MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
31.47%
increased by 1.13%
1 Week
35.39%
increased by 5.05%
1 Month
42.73%
increased by 12.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 7, 1999 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9666 | 18.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2134 | 26.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6869 | 109.72*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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