V-Lab
Panbrothers Tbk MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
75.96%
decreased by 5.03%
1 Week
80.21%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
92.14%
increased by 11.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2476 | 21.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5526 | 27.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0080 | 0.42 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1239 | 0.79 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0937 | 3.76*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9063 | 44.12*** |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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