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V-Lab

Panbrothers Tbk Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

74.20%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

78.53%

increased by 4.66%

1 Month

91.45%

increased by 17.58%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Panbrothers Tbk SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3033
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1570
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8143
48.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.2838
4.47***
γ2-0.5591
-5.66***
γ30.5825
7.50***
γ4-0.5407
-5.80***
γ50.3525
3.42***
γ6-0.1114
-1.10
γ7-0.1562
-1.19
γ80.5164
2.05**

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days