Panbrothers Tbk Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
74.20%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
78.53%
increased by 4.66%
1 Month
91.45%
increased by 17.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3033 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8143 | 48.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2838 | 4.47*** |
| γ2 | -0.5591 | -5.66*** |
| γ3 | 0.5825 | 7.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.5407 | -5.80*** |
| γ5 | 0.3525 | 3.42*** |
| γ6 | -0.1114 | -1.10 |
| γ7 | -0.1562 | -1.19 |
| γ8 | 0.5164 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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