V-Lab
Panbrothers Tbk Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
60.53%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
59.49%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
55.78%
decreased by 5.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4015 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8229 | 52.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2684 | 4.00*** |
| γ2 | -0.5376 | -5.14*** |
| γ3 | 0.5774 | 6.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.5489 | -5.55*** |
| γ5 | 0.3761 | 3.48*** |
| γ6 | -0.1646 | -1.58 |
| γ7 | -0.0313 | -0.26 |
| γ8 | 0.1133 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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