Panbrothers Tbk Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
60.11%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
59.11%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Month
55.52%
decreased by 5.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4023 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1541 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8232 | 52.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2690 | 3.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.5392 | -5.13*** |
| γ3 | 0.5794 | 6.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.5501 | -5.52*** |
| γ5 | 0.3754 | 3.46*** |
| γ6 | -0.1622 | -1.55 |
| γ7 | -0.0339 | -0.29 |
| γ8 | 0.1145 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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