V-Lab
Daito Koun Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.89%
1 Week
31.47%
1 Month
36.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 25% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2143 | 16.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6749 | 47.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0427 | -2.14** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0054 | 1.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0086 | 2.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9908 | 271.38*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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