Daito Koun Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.27%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
39.02%
increased by 3.50%
1 Month
46.31%
increased by 10.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0479 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1437 | 6.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7605 | 22.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0712 | 0.96 |
| γ2 | -0.1761 | -1.56 |
| γ3 | 0.1369 | 1.89* |
| γ4 | -0.0222 | -0.38 |
| γ5 | -0.0008 | -0.02 |
| γ6 | -0.0360 | -0.85 |
| γ7 | 0.1664 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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