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V-Lab

Daito Koun Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.54%

increased by 3.53%

1 Week

24.62%

increased by 4.61%

1 Month

26.97%

increased by 6.96%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Daito Koun Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 8, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0651
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1495
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7629
22.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0643
0.84
γ2-0.1634
-1.41
γ30.1248
1.67*
γ4-0.0056
-0.09
γ5-0.0357
-0.75
γ60.0478
0.96
γ7-0.0465
-1.05

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days