V-Lab
Daito Koun Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.32%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
24.48%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
26.99%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0651 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1495 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7629 | 22.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0643 | 0.84 |
| γ2 | -0.1634 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | 0.1248 | 1.67* |
| γ4 | -0.0056 | -0.09 |
| γ5 | -0.0357 | -0.75 |
| γ6 | 0.0478 | 0.96 |
| γ7 | -0.0465 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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