V-Lab
Inversora Juramento Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
34.78%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
36.46%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
39.74%
increased by 4.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7876 | 46.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0270 | 2.29** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.1732 | 0.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7435 | 0.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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