Inversora Juramento Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
40.66%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
43.08%
increased by 1.82%
1 Month
47.04%
increased by 5.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3709 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0930 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7664 | 15.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0233 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | -0.1051 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | -0.0208 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | 0.4721 | 2.30** |
| γ5 | -0.6867 | -3.12*** |
| γ6 | 0.8187 | 3.68*** |
| γ7 | -0.8491 | -3.88*** |
| γ8 | 0.5173 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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