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V-Lab

Inversora Juramento Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

39.86%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

42.29%

increased by 1.97%

1 Month

46.29%

increased by 5.97%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Inversora Juramento Sa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3717
5.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0932
5.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7677
16.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0239
-0.12
γ2-0.1040
-0.35
γ3-0.0219
-0.11
γ40.4734
2.29**
γ5-0.6888
-3.12***
γ60.8224
3.68***
γ7-0.8568
-3.93***
γ80.5248
3.15***

Persistence:

0.861

Half-life:

5 days