V-Lab
Inversora Juramento Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.07%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
36.16%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
36.51%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 63% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0472 | 11.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0383 | 13.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9625 | 620.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0148 | -3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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