V-Lab
Inversora Juramento Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.52%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
31.69%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
32.36%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 61% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0491 | 11.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 13.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9612 | 604.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0149 | -3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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