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V-Lab

Inversora Juramento Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

39.88%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

39.92%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

40.05%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Inversora Juramento Sa GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0452
11.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0374
13.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9637
640.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0147
-3.52***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days