Inversora Juramento Sa GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
37.77%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
37.91%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
38.41%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0483 | 11.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 21.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9597 | 559.93*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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